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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+1.76vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+1.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-0.19+4.13vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+2.51vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+6.52vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38+2.34vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+0.51vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.60+1.37vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+3.17vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.07-2.76vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.22+0.64vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+0.61vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-0.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.81-3.88vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-2.86vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-1.84vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-1.30vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.75-8.05vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.15-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76University of California at Santa Cruz1.6931.6%1st Place
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3.24University of California at Santa Cruz1.4523.8%1st Place
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7.13University of California at Davis-0.194.8%1st Place
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6.51University of California at Santa Cruz0.176.1%1st Place
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11.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.4%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.384.2%1st Place
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7.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Berkeley-0.603.5%1st Place
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12.17University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.6%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.8%1st Place
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11.64University of California at Davis-1.221.9%1st Place
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12.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.4%1st Place
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12.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.4%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Berkeley-0.812.5%1st Place
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12.14University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.4%1st Place
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14.16California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.9%1st Place
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15.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.2%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Berkeley-0.752.2%1st Place
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15.21University of California at Davis-2.150.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 31.6% | 23.9% | 17.1% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 23.8% | 21.6% | 18.9% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Maggie McEachen | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tony Gao | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| John Mayfield | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Liam Marney | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 29.8% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 17.9% | 25.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.