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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+1.65vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.60+7.34vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+4.24vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+3.46vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-1.22+6.81vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.45-2.77vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.19+0.05vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49+4.83vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.81+1.12vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+1.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38-2.66vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.75-1.89vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-6.36vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-1.29vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-2.95vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-3.76vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-2.93vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-2.59vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.15-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65University of California at Santa Cruz1.6931.4%1st Place
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9.34University of California at Berkeley-0.603.2%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.5%1st Place
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7.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.0%1st Place
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11.81University of California at Davis-1.221.8%1st Place
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3.23University of California at Santa Cruz1.4522.9%1st Place
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7.05University of California at Davis-0.195.3%1st Place
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12.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.2%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Berkeley-0.812.1%1st Place
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11.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.7%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.383.5%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Berkeley-0.752.1%1st Place
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6.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.177.4%1st Place
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12.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.5%1st Place
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12.05University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.6%1st Place
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12.24University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.8%1st Place
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14.07California State University Monterey Bay-1.851.4%1st Place
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15.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.4%1st Place
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15.21University of California at Davis-2.150.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 31.4% | 25.9% | 18.1% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tony Gao | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Buster Baylis | 22.9% | 22.6% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| John Mayfield | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Maggie McEachen | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Liam Marney | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 16.4% | 29.2% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 26.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.