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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+1.69vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+1.26vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+4.69vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+7.70vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38+3.40vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+1.15vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.60+2.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.75+2.06vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.19-1.81vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-3.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.81-0.89vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+0.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-0.67vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-0.09vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-2.95vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-1.22-4.38vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-4.14vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-2.44vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.15-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.69University of California at Santa Cruz1.6931.6%1st Place
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3.26University of California at Santa Cruz1.4524.0%1st Place
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7.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.274.7%1st Place
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11.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.1%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.384.0%1st Place
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7.15University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.5%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Berkeley-0.602.9%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Berkeley-0.752.9%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Davis-0.195.3%1st Place
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6.44University of California at Santa Cruz0.176.7%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Berkeley-0.812.6%1st Place
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12.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.1%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.7%1st Place
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13.91California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.9%1st Place
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12.05University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.2%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Davis-1.221.3%1st Place
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12.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.3%1st Place
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15.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.4%1st Place
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14.93University of California at Davis-2.150.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 31.6% | 25.4% | 16.1% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 24.0% | 20.8% | 17.5% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Brily Petersen | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tessa Greene | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maggie McEachen | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Mayfield | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Liam Marney | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 12.3% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Tony Gao | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 31.1% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 24.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.