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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis-1.58+11.46vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.84+7.54vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+2.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+0.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+1.85vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+4.72vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-2.92vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-1.98+6.03vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27-1.98vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-0.58vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.53+1.29vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-2.34vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-3.00vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-1.23vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-1.32-3.46vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-1.98-1.98vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.00-2.90vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.58-9.75vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78-5.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.46University of California at Davis-1.581.5%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Berkeley-0.844.7%1st Place
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5.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.2%1st Place
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4.39University of California at Santa Cruz0.6315.2%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Santa Cruz-0.177.4%1st Place
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10.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.172.6%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.9119.7%1st Place
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14.03University of California at Los Angeles-1.981.2%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Santa Cruz-0.278.1%1st Place
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9.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.863.8%1st Place
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12.29University of California at Berkeley-1.531.4%1st Place
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9.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.883.7%1st Place
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10.0University of California at Santa Cruz-0.984.0%1st Place
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12.77University of California at Los Angeles-1.611.9%1st Place
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11.54California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.1%1st Place
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14.02University of California at Davis-1.981.4%1st Place
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14.1University of California at Davis-2.001.3%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Berkeley-0.585.9%1st Place
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13.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Melvin | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% |
| Bianca Weber | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 15.2% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mira Shupe | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Colin Olson | 19.7% | 17.9% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Lu | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| Emilia McNabb | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noa Brassfield | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Dante Drolet | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Bennett Alger | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Farago | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| John Flanagan | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Stephanie Ng | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 18.6% |
| Jack Skinner | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 17.3% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Pike Williams | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.