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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis-1.58+11.46vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.50vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-0.84+6.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+0.31vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+2.32vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-1.94vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+0.11vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+2.27vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+2.45vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-0.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.58-2.72vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.53+0.33vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-3.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.00-0.03vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.98-1.08vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17-5.21vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78-3.72vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.98-3.96vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.46University of California at Davis-1.582.0%1st Place
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5.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.2%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Berkeley-0.843.1%1st Place
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4.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.6317.5%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Santa Cruz-0.276.9%1st Place
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4.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.9118.0%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.177.2%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.983.3%1st Place
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11.45California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.3%1st Place
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9.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.864.5%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Berkeley-0.585.8%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Berkeley-1.532.2%1st Place
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9.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.884.0%1st Place
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13.97University of California at Davis-2.001.7%1st Place
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13.92University of California at Davis-1.981.4%1st Place
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10.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.173.6%1st Place
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13.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.3%1st Place
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14.04University of California at Los Angeles-1.980.9%1st Place
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12.49University of California at Los Angeles-1.612.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Melvin | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% |
| Jack Kisling | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Isaac Sharp | 17.5% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Colin Olson | 18.0% | 17.4% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Farago | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Noa Brassfield | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Dante Drolet | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% |
| Bennett Alger | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Jack Skinner | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| Stephanie Ng | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 18.2% |
| Mira Shupe | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Pike Williams | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% |
| Kevin Lu | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 17.2% |
| John Flanagan | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.