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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+2.94vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+8.13vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-1.58+9.66vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+0.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+2.06vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+4.90vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+0.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.53+4.51vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.84+0.33vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-0.40vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+0.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.58-3.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.00+1.13vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78-1.06vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-2.47vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-6.61vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-1.98-3.06vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.98-4.04vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-13.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.9119.3%1st Place
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10.13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.983.1%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Davis-1.582.2%1st Place
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4.28University of California at Santa Cruz0.6318.2%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Santa Cruz-0.177.4%1st Place
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10.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.172.8%1st Place
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7.16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.276.5%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Berkeley-1.531.7%1st Place
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9.33University of California at Berkeley-0.845.2%1st Place
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9.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.884.1%1st Place
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11.62California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.2%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Berkeley-0.585.0%1st Place
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14.13University of California at Davis-2.001.1%1st Place
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12.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.7%1st Place
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12.53University of California at Los Angeles-1.611.5%1st Place
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9.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.863.5%1st Place
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13.94University of California at Davis-1.981.5%1st Place
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13.96University of California at Los Angeles-1.981.7%1st Place
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5.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8311.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Olson | 19.3% | 18.8% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Farago | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Luke Melvin | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| Isaac Sharp | 18.2% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mira Shupe | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Emilia McNabb | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dante Drolet | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% |
| Bianca Weber | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Bennett Alger | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jack Skinner | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 17.4% |
| Pike Williams | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| John Flanagan | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Noa Brassfield | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Stephanie Ng | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 18.3% |
| Kevin Lu | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 17.3% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.