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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.23+3.51vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.33+5.22vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.51+3.71vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.99+1.37vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.33+5.45vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.60+0.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-1.55vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.09-3.07vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.52-2.32vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University2.63-3.54vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.58-1.40vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.22-2.27vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College0.24-0.80vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire1.24-4.42vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.37-2.98vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-0.48-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Connecticut College3.230.2%1st Place
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7.22Tufts University2.330.1%1st Place
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6.71Roger Williams University2.510.1%1st Place
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5.37University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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10.45Boston University1.330.0%1st Place
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6.57Northeastern University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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4.93University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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6.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.520.1%1st Place
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6.46Salve Regina University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.6Bowdoin College1.580.0%1st Place
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10.73Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.2Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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10.58University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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13.02Bates College0.370.0%1st Place
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14.53University of Connecticut-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Kopp | 16.4% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Shaner | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Scott Booth | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Megan Yeigh | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Campbell | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 17.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.2% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 7.2% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| August Sturm | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 13.5% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hall | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Shannon | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Frumer | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| George Luber | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% |
| Jade Forsberg | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 16.6% | 26.6% | 19.3% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 3.4% |
| Amy Macdonald | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 18.2% | 25.4% | 17.0% |
| Martin Hooker | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 17.6% | 53.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.