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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+4.58vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-1.58+10.64vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+1.34vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+0.08vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86+4.56vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+2.24vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+1.74vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.53+1.99vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-1.32vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.84-2.54vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.32-1.51vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.98-0.07vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.58-6.84vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-3.59vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.00-2.83vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.98-3.93vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78-5.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8310.8%1st Place
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12.64University of California at Davis-1.581.7%1st Place
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4.34University of California at Santa Cruz0.6317.3%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.9119.9%1st Place
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9.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.864.8%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Santa Cruz-0.177.6%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Cruz-0.276.6%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Santa Cruz-0.983.4%1st Place
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10.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.172.5%1st Place
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11.99University of California at Berkeley-1.531.9%1st Place
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9.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.884.0%1st Place
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9.46University of California at Berkeley-0.843.6%1st Place
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11.49California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.5%1st Place
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13.93University of California at Davis-1.981.1%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Berkeley-0.585.9%1st Place
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12.41University of California at Los Angeles-1.612.7%1st Place
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14.17University of California at Davis-2.000.9%1st Place
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14.07University of California at Los Angeles-1.981.2%1st Place
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13.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kisling | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Isaac Sharp | 17.3% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 19.9% | 16.6% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noa Brassfield | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Dante Massaro | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emilia McNabb | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Farago | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Mira Shupe | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Dante Drolet | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Bennett Alger | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Stephanie Ng | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 17.3% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| John Flanagan | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Jack Skinner | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 17.8% |
| Kevin Lu | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 18.9% |
| Pike Williams | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.