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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+2.98vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+8.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+1.27vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.53vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-1.58+7.41vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+4.08vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17-0.08vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+3.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.84+0.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.53+2.08vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-1.26vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-2.32vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27-5.77vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78-0.57vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.00-1.14vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-1.98-1.70vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.98-2.98vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.58-9.58vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-6.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.9119.4%1st Place
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10.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.172.8%1st Place
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4.27University of California at Santa Cruz0.6316.7%1st Place
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5.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8311.7%1st Place
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12.41University of California at Davis-1.582.0%1st Place
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10.08University of California at Santa Cruz-0.983.3%1st Place
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6.92University of California at Santa Cruz-0.178.5%1st Place
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11.57California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.2%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Berkeley-0.844.4%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Berkeley-1.532.9%1st Place
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9.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.863.6%1st Place
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9.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.884.0%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Cruz-0.276.5%1st Place
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13.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.5%1st Place
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13.86University of California at Davis-2.001.6%1st Place
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14.3University of California at Davis-1.980.7%1st Place
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14.02University of California at Los Angeles-1.981.3%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Berkeley-0.585.3%1st Place
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12.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.611.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Olson | 19.4% | 19.1% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mira Shupe | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Isaac Sharp | 16.7% | 16.4% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% |
| Christopher Farago | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Dante Massaro | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Dante Drolet | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Noa Brassfield | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Bennett Alger | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Emilia McNabb | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Pike Williams | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Jack Skinner | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 16.0% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| Kevin Lu | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 19.4% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| John Flanagan | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.