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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+4.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-1.58+10.62vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+1.34vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+0.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+2.11vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86+3.48vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+3.80vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+3.46vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17-2.13vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+0.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.84-1.52vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.78+1.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.98+0.95vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-4.30vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.58-6.91vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.98-2.12vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-4.46vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-1.53-5.93vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.00-4.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.0%1st Place
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12.62University of California at Davis-1.581.8%1st Place
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4.34University of California at Santa Cruz0.6318.2%1st Place
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4.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.8215.3%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.278.3%1st Place
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9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.864.2%1st Place
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10.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.172.6%1st Place
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11.46California State University Monterey Bay-1.322.5%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Santa Cruz-0.177.9%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Santa Cruz-0.983.6%1st Place
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9.48University of California at Berkeley-0.842.9%1st Place
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13.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.781.8%1st Place
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13.95University of California at Davis-1.981.4%1st Place
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9.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.883.0%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Berkeley-0.586.2%1st Place
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13.88University of California at Los Angeles-1.981.4%1st Place
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12.54University of California at Los Angeles-1.612.3%1st Place
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12.07University of California at Berkeley-1.533.1%1st Place
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14.12University of California at Davis-2.001.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kisling | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% |
| Isaac Sharp | 18.2% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 15.3% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noa Brassfield | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Mira Shupe | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Farago | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Bianca Weber | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Pike Williams | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| Stephanie Ng | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 18.1% |
| Bennett Alger | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Emerson Marquez | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kevin Lu | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 15.8% |
| John Flanagan | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Dante Drolet | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% |
| Jack Skinner | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.