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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+2.55vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+0.99vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.47+4.78vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-0.43vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.10+3.89vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+0.51vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University1.49+0.53vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.75+1.58vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.87-2.21vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.54-4.85vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.17-0.03vs Predicted
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12Colgate University1.69-4.74vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.30+0.08vs Predicted
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14University of Toronto-0.08-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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2.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.3%1st Place
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7.78Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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3.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.2%1st Place
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8.89Queen's University1.100.0%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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7.53Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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9.58University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.79SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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5.15Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.97University of Rochester0.170.0%1st Place
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7.26Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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13.08Rochester Institute of Technology-1.300.0%1st Place
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11.34University of Toronto-0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 18.9% | 20.8% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 26.8% | 20.9% | 17.8% | 15.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Eddie Cox | 17.8% | 20.9% | 16.1% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Jones | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Rory Mess | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 3.3% |
| Arthur Libby | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kasper | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 21.2% | 25.1% | 10.8% |
| Emily Bicks | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Amit Rogel | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 69.1% |
| Bryan Krol | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 17.6% | 31.9% | 13.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.