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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+2.75vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University1.49+5.80vs Predicted
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3University of Toronto-0.08+8.39vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.35+1.86vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25-1.17vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.65vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.05-2.99vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.75+1.72vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-2.26vs Predicted
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10Colgate University1.69-2.46vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.05+0.34vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.47-3.97vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.10-4.16vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.94-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.2%1st Place
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7.8Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Toronto-0.080.0%1st Place
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5.86Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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3.83Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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3.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.01SUNY Maritime College3.050.2%1st Place
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9.72University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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7.54Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.34University of Rochester0.050.0%1st Place
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8.03Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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8.84Queen's University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.79Rochester Institute of Technology-0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Cox | 19.2% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Bryan Krol | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 10.3% | 17.4% | 27.9% | 19.8% |
| Matthew Schofield | 5.7% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.5% | 17.7% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 22.7% | 19.3% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 15.2% | 17.1% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Henry Scharfe | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 19.7% | 24.1% | 16.8% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Will Jones | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 1.7% |
| Gareth Daunton | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 54.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.