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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.25vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+2.04vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+0.71vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.35+1.78vs Predicted
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5Colgate University1.69+2.55vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.25-2.17vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology-0.94+5.70vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.10+0.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-2.29vs Predicted
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10University of Toronto-0.08+1.54vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo0.75-1.10vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.47-3.97vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University1.49-5.12vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.05-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.04SUNY Maritime College3.050.2%1st Place
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3.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.2%1st Place
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5.78Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.55Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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3.83Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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12.7Rochester Institute of Technology-0.940.0%1st Place
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8.87Queen's University1.100.0%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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11.54University of Toronto-0.080.0%1st Place
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9.9University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.03Columbia University1.470.0%1st Place
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7.88Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Rochester0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 23.6% | 20.9% | 18.0% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 15.3% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 18.6% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 18.1% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 15.9% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gareth Daunton | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 18.1% | 54.1% |
| Will Jones | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Bryan Krol | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 12.7% | 17.6% | 27.2% | 19.7% |
| Rory Mess | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 17.5% | 12.1% | 5.5% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Henry Scharfe | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.