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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.14+3.75vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.28+4.59vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-0.15vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.52-1.65vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University0.02+4.32vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38-1.82vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.94+0.30vs Predicted
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8University of Toronto-0.85+3.04vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo1.00-1.73vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.34-1.33vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.65-5.39vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.40-1.59vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.53-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.75SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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6.59Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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2.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.3%1st Place
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2.35Fordham University3.520.3%1st Place
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9.32Syracuse University0.020.0%1st Place
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4.18Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.3University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Toronto-0.850.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.340.0%1st Place
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5.61Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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10.41Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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10.67Rochester Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Lawless | 7.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Tara | 25.8% | 23.2% | 20.1% | 14.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 34.8% | 28.0% | 18.3% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Sanders | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 17.3% | 8.3% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 11.5% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Aleks Vagnesr | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 19.3% | 37.2% |
| Dante Iozzo | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Clark Spencer Ragsdale | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 5.9% |
| Adam DeVita | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 17.9% | 20.3% | 22.0% |
| Ian Taylor | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 24.5% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.