Race 3B

north-fall-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Lawless 9.3% 9.4% 14.8% 15.6% 13.7% 14.1% 11.5% 6.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Aleks Vagnesr 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% 3.9% 5.5% 9.5% 14.1% 18.5% 39.3%
Alex Woloshyn 10.1% 14.3% 16.9% 15.3% 15.9% 11.4% 8.0% 5.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Tara 25.1% 26.0% 19.6% 13.8% 9.5% 3.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dante Iozzo 3.7% 3.3% 4.5% 8.2% 9.1% 9.6% 13.9% 13.4% 13.3% 10.7% 6.6% 3.3% 0.4%
Matthew Sherar 3.9% 4.7% 6.0% 8.7% 10.9% 14.1% 11.9% 14.4% 10.8% 7.0% 5.2% 2.2% 0.2%
Tyler Rochon 3.4% 3.3% 4.5% 6.8% 7.2% 10.3% 11.8% 15.1% 13.8% 12.5% 6.7% 3.8% 0.8%
Adam DeVita 5.6% 6.8% 9.5% 10.9% 12.6% 14.1% 15.9% 10.2% 8.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Will Holz 35.0% 28.1% 16.8% 9.6% 6.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindsay Burroughs 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.9% 3.7% 2.3% 4.0% 5.8% 9.8% 11.9% 16.5% 22.0% 19.3%
Clark Spencer Ragsdale 1.4% 1.0% 2.7% 4.2% 4.7% 8.0% 8.6% 11.3% 15.0% 16.0% 12.9% 9.5% 4.7%
Henry Sanders 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 3.0% 5.8% 6.0% 8.2% 10.6% 14.8% 18.9% 16.6% 10.0%
Ian Taylor 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 2.4% 3.3% 5.5% 7.5% 11.4% 16.7% 23.2% 25.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.