← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.80vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.38+2.19vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.71vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University3.52-1.66vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.34+3.52vs Predicted
-
6Queen's University1.28+0.50vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University1.65-1.39vs Predicted
-
8University of Rochester0.94-0.69vs Predicted
-
9University of Buffalo1.00-1.80vs Predicted
-
10University of Toronto-0.85+1.01vs Predicted
-
11Syracuse University-0.22-1.22vs Predicted
-
12Colgate University-0.40-1.62vs Predicted
-
13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.53-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.3%1st Place
-
4.19Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
-
4.71SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
-
2.34Fordham University3.520.3%1st Place
-
8.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.340.0%1st Place
-
6.5Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
-
5.61Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
-
7.31University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
-
7.2University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
-
11.01University of Toronto-0.850.0%1st Place
-
9.78Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
-
10.38Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
-
10.65Rochester Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 26.7% | 24.0% | 19.1% | 14.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 11.6% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 17.5% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 7.7% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 34.3% | 28.6% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Spencer Ragsdale | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% |
| Matthew Sherar | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Adam DeVita | 5.8% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Dante Iozzo | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Aleks Vagnesr | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 21.0% | 36.1% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 17.0% | 12.2% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 20.7% |
| Ian Taylor | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 21.7% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.