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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.82vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo1.00+5.15vs Predicted
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3University of Toronto-0.85+8.15vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.52-1.63vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38-0.88vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.94+1.29vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.43vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.28-1.55vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.65-3.24vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.34-1.29vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.40-0.83vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.22-2.06vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.46-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.3%1st Place
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7.15University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
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11.15University of Toronto-0.850.0%1st Place
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2.37Fordham University3.520.3%1st Place
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4.12Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.29University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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4.57SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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6.45Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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5.76Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.340.0%1st Place
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10.17Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.94Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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10.5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 25.2% | 25.4% | 19.0% | 14.5% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Iozzo | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Aleks Vagnesr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 23.0% | 36.0% |
| Will Holz | 33.8% | 27.7% | 19.6% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 13.1% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| John Lawless | 10.8% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 15.7% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Adam DeVita | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Clark Spencer Ragsdale | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 14.6% | 9.5% | 5.6% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 16.3% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| Richard Cremin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 17.6% | 19.9% | 24.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.