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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.80vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.28+4.53vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.65+2.74vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.52-1.67vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo1.00+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.94+1.27vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.41vs Predicted
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8University of Toronto-0.85+3.08vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-4.77vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.34-1.30vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.40-0.86vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.46-1.50vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.22-2.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.53Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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5.74Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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2.33Fordham University3.520.4%1st Place
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7.08University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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4.59SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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11.08University of Toronto-0.850.0%1st Place
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4.23Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.340.0%1st Place
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10.14Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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10.5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.460.0%1st Place
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10.02Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 24.9% | 26.3% | 20.0% | 13.8% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Adam DeVita | 5.0% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Will Holz | 35.5% | 27.5% | 18.0% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Iozzo | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| John Lawless | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aleks Vagnesr | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 22.7% | 36.2% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 10.5% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Spencer Ragsdale | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| Richard Cremin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 16.5% | 21.4% | 23.5% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 16.7% | 20.1% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.