Race 3A

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Gabriel Elstrodt 20.9% 19.5% 15.1% 12.3% 10.1% 8.0% 6.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Gibbs 13.7% 14.4% 12.8% 10.9% 13.0% 11.3% 9.5% 6.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Liam Ballantyne 6.4% 6.9% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9% 9.8% 11.1% 11.4% 11.2% 9.1% 5.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Eric Anderson 10.7% 11.9% 11.8% 12.2% 11.5% 11.0% 9.3% 9.1% 5.9% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Renee Torrie 3.9% 4.2% 6.2% 7.7% 5.9% 8.8% 9.2% 11.9% 12.0% 12.1% 9.7% 5.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Alex Moreno 12.4% 9.8% 12.9% 13.0% 12.0% 10.9% 8.7% 8.3% 6.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Nathaniel Douglass 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 5.1% 6.5% 8.1% 11.8% 18.4% 23.3% 13.8%
Peter Christensen 8.4% 10.0% 9.0% 9.7% 11.4% 9.2% 12.1% 9.4% 8.4% 5.8% 4.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayard Lalor 3.9% 2.9% 3.3% 4.8% 5.4% 5.7% 8.0% 10.2% 13.9% 14.7% 12.5% 8.6% 4.5% 1.6%
Jan Kite-Powell 13.7% 14.0% 13.1% 13.3% 12.6% 12.1% 8.8% 5.3% 3.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Barton 1.3% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.6% 4.3% 4.2% 7.3% 8.1% 12.4% 15.2% 17.7% 14.4% 6.7%
Lillian Vincens 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 3.0% 3.3% 4.1% 5.5% 6.0% 9.5% 12.8% 16.9% 17.1% 11.1% 5.3%
Brian Reilly 1.9% 0.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 3.4% 4.6% 6.0% 8.9% 13.8% 18.3% 23.9% 11.5%
Jonathan Baker 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.6% 2.0% 2.6% 4.4% 8.1% 17.6% 60.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.