Race 4A

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Gabriel Elstrodt 20.6% 19.0% 16.2% 12.2% 10.2% 8.7% 5.1% 4.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Gibbs 13.7% 13.1% 12.9% 12.1% 13.4% 10.9% 9.5% 6.5% 3.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Alex Moreno 12.6% 12.3% 13.1% 10.0% 11.9% 11.1% 9.3% 8.7% 6.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayard Lalor 2.4% 2.9% 5.5% 5.1% 6.2% 5.4% 7.8% 11.2% 12.3% 14.6% 12.2% 7.8% 5.2% 1.4%
Liam Ballantyne 5.4% 7.0% 5.7% 9.5% 9.7% 8.7% 11.5% 11.1% 11.5% 8.7% 6.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.2%
Eric Anderson 10.7% 10.4% 11.3% 13.4% 10.2% 12.1% 10.9% 7.2% 6.4% 4.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 9.1% 11.2% 9.9% 8.4% 11.1% 11.4% 11.2% 10.0% 8.0% 5.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Jan Kite-Powell 15.0% 14.4% 12.8% 12.4% 12.6% 9.9% 8.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Renee Torrie 4.8% 4.1% 5.2% 6.8% 6.6% 9.0% 9.8% 12.8% 12.9% 11.6% 8.6% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5%
Nathaniel Douglass 1.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 0.6% 1.9% 2.4% 3.4% 6.5% 8.6% 13.1% 16.8% 26.6% 14.7%
Lillian Vincens 1.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 3.0% 4.9% 5.0% 7.0% 9.1% 11.2% 17.0% 17.8% 12.7% 4.7%
Brian Reilly 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 3.1% 4.3% 6.1% 10.6% 12.9% 19.3% 21.8% 13.3%
Jonathan Baker 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2.5% 3.1% 5.2% 7.5% 16.7% 60.6%
Nathaniel Barton 1.7% 1.4% 2.3% 3.0% 2.6% 3.9% 5.1% 6.9% 8.2% 12.5% 15.7% 19.1% 13.1% 4.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.