Race 1B

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Zachary Vickerson 11.2% 11.6% 11.8% 12.2% 10.7% 10.5% 9.0% 6.7% 7.1% 5.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Marina Cano 14.0% 14.1% 13.6% 11.0% 10.3% 10.7% 10.5% 6.5% 4.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Benjamin Craig 18.0% 16.6% 14.8% 12.8% 11.0% 9.3% 6.6% 5.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Connor Oursler 10.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.3% 10.1% 11.1% 9.9% 8.6% 6.6% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Abe Kipnis 1.3% 1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 2.6% 4.4% 4.8% 7.7% 8.2% 11.5% 15.7% 17.4% 17.7%
Justin Tedeschi 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 7.4% 8.9% 11.1% 12.6% 14.3% 14.5% 10.5%
Caden Buckley 5.4% 6.0% 7.9% 5.7% 6.7% 8.2% 10.9% 11.2% 10.3% 10.7% 7.0% 5.6% 3.6% 0.8%
Francis Guiton 3.7% 3.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.9% 4.8% 7.2% 8.6% 9.5% 11.3% 12.1% 11.1% 9.5% 5.0%
Sam Rush 17.0% 16.0% 13.8% 13.5% 11.6% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Skoda 8.5% 8.2% 8.2% 10.6% 11.5% 11.2% 10.8% 9.7% 8.8% 6.3% 3.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Graham Roeber 3.7% 3.4% 3.8% 5.5% 5.9% 7.5% 8.1% 10.1% 9.7% 12.6% 12.0% 9.5% 5.8% 2.4%
Ryan Carlucci 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 2.3% 4.2% 6.4% 7.3% 12.7% 15.3% 18.1% 22.8%
Christopher Mannka 1.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.6% 2.7% 2.4% 4.6% 5.3% 8.0% 11.3% 20.2% 37.3%
Ian Campbell 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 4.0% 5.7% 6.2% 5.6% 9.9% 9.5% 11.3% 13.6% 12.9% 8.9% 3.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.