Race 3B

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Zachary Vickerson 10.6% 12.4% 11.3% 11.4% 10.7% 10.2% 10.3% 7.5% 5.9% 5.1% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Sam Rush 18.4% 16.2% 14.6% 13.8% 11.6% 9.3% 6.8% 4.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Benjamin Craig 18.2% 16.9% 13.4% 14.1% 10.7% 9.5% 6.8% 4.2% 3.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Charles Skoda 8.1% 9.3% 10.9% 10.6% 9.7% 10.1% 10.8% 8.8% 8.5% 6.9% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Ian Campbell 2.6% 2.2% 4.5% 3.1% 4.9% 5.9% 7.1% 8.5% 10.8% 9.0% 13.2% 13.1% 9.1% 6.0%
Marina Cano 12.5% 12.1% 13.0% 13.3% 11.3% 10.4% 7.0% 8.4% 5.4% 3.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Caden Buckley 5.5% 7.0% 5.7% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0% 9.8% 12.2% 9.8% 10.5% 8.1% 5.9% 2.7% 0.9%
Abe Kipnis 1.5% 1.8% 3.3% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 4.8% 4.2% 6.1% 8.9% 12.8% 12.7% 17.0% 19.0%
Connor Oursler 11.8% 11.1% 10.4% 11.1% 13.4% 11.0% 9.3% 7.8% 6.1% 4.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Francis Guiton 3.0% 2.7% 3.5% 3.6% 4.8% 6.6% 7.0% 8.3% 9.9% 12.6% 13.6% 11.7% 8.2% 4.5%
Justin Tedeschi 1.5% 2.7% 2.0% 2.7% 2.9% 4.0% 5.0% 8.1% 8.2% 10.5% 12.3% 15.6% 14.8% 9.7%
Graham Roeber 3.8% 3.2% 4.9% 4.1% 6.5% 8.0% 8.7% 9.3% 12.7% 10.9% 10.1% 9.4% 5.1% 3.3%
Christopher Mannka 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 2.9% 2.3% 4.0% 7.3% 8.0% 12.0% 19.7% 36.1%
Ryan Carlucci 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.7% 5.7% 6.9% 7.5% 10.0% 13.7% 21.8% 20.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.