Race 1A

mcsa-open-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Nithya Balachander 8.8% 8.6% 9.3% 10.2% 10.5% 9.8% 9.7% 10.1% 8.5% 6.5% 4.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 7.4% 8.2% 8.2% 7.2% 8.6% 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 9.6% 8.2% 6.7% 4.5% 2.0% 0.2%
Jacqueline Ruggieri 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 5.5% 5.1% 7.4% 9.0% 9.3% 10.1% 11.3% 12.7% 9.6% 5.7% 2.4%
Eric Brieden 12.5% 10.9% 12.3% 11.6% 11.7% 9.8% 10.5% 7.1% 5.9% 3.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Braden Vogel 17.1% 16.7% 14.7% 13.2% 10.1% 8.2% 6.8% 6.2% 3.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Timothy Hesse 17.5% 15.9% 15.4% 13.4% 10.5% 9.4% 7.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 5.5% 7.1% 7.8% 7.6% 9.2% 8.6% 9.7% 10.9% 10.1% 9.7% 7.1% 4.0% 2.3% 0.4%
Jake Weinstein 11.8% 10.7% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% 10.3% 8.4% 7.9% 6.4% 6.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Nok In Chan 3.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.9% 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 7.6% 11.5% 11.6% 13.3% 11.2% 6.7% 2.5%
Mason Shaw 6.9% 7.2% 7.0% 8.6% 8.6% 8.9% 9.4% 9.6% 10.1% 10.2% 7.2% 4.3% 1.8% 0.1%
Jack Rutherford 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% 3.8% 5.0% 6.1% 8.2% 11.2% 15.0% 21.7% 15.4%
Carly Irwin 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 3.2% 4.3% 4.4% 7.5% 8.0% 12.0% 18.1% 19.6% 13.2%
Jacob Hsia 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 5.1% 5.2% 8.6% 12.4% 18.2% 19.9% 14.6%
Keegan Aerts 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.8% 5.7% 8.8% 18.4% 50.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.