Race 5A

mcsa-open-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Braden Vogel 17.0% 16.4% 15.2% 13.7% 10.5% 9.4% 6.8% 4.2% 3.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Nithya Balachander 7.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.2% 10.2% 10.7% 9.8% 9.4% 8.2% 8.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Jacqueline Ruggieri 4.2% 4.2% 5.0% 5.5% 5.1% 6.3% 7.3% 9.8% 10.8% 11.3% 11.9% 10.2% 6.6% 1.8%
Jake Weinstein 11.6% 9.8% 9.8% 10.5% 10.7% 10.7% 9.8% 8.6% 7.8% 5.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 7.0% 7.1% 6.4% 8.6% 9.1% 9.4% 9.8% 10.1% 8.7% 10.1% 7.2% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5%
Timothy Hesse 18.4% 18.5% 14.9% 11.9% 10.0% 8.5% 6.7% 5.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Eric Brieden 12.8% 11.4% 12.6% 11.2% 10.8% 11.1% 9.1% 7.4% 5.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 6.6% 7.0% 7.5% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 8.6% 10.1% 10.2% 8.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9%
Mason Shaw 6.4% 6.7% 7.2% 8.5% 9.4% 8.1% 9.2% 10.0% 10.8% 9.2% 6.9% 4.6% 2.6% 0.4%
Jacob Hsia 1.6% 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 3.8% 4.6% 5.9% 8.3% 12.1% 16.2% 21.1% 14.9%
Nok In Chan 3.0% 3.7% 3.6% 4.5% 6.1% 6.9% 7.6% 8.6% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 10.7% 7.1% 2.2%
Jack Rutherford 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 3.0% 4.5% 4.3% 5.9% 8.2% 11.3% 17.6% 20.4% 15.3%
Carly Irwin 1.6% 1.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.2% 3.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0% 7.5% 12.2% 16.8% 18.7% 12.6%
Keegan Aerts 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 3.6% 3.4% 5.5% 9.2% 17.2% 50.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.