← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Queen's University0.53+1.46vs Predicted
-
2Queen's University1.28-0.28vs Predicted
-
5McGill University0.07-2.10vs Predicted
-
9Penn State University-0.78-5.19vs Predicted
-
11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.09-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.46Queen's University0.530.2%1st Place
-
1.72Queen's University1.280.5%1st Place
-
2.9McGill University0.070.1%1st Place
-
3.81Penn State University-0.780.1%1st Place
-
4.1Rochester Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Tanczak | 24.5% | 30.2% | 25.0% | 15.2% | 5.1% |
| Matthew Sherar | 52.1% | 29.1% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| Arthur Olivenstein | 14.6% | 22.6% | 30.1% | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| Sarah Culp | 5.0% | 9.7% | 19.5% | 30.6% | 35.2% |
| Alexander Beahan | 3.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 26.9% | 49.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.