Race 5B

mcsa-open-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Billy Vogel 20.2% 17.0% 13.9% 13.3% 11.7% 8.0% 6.3% 4.0% 3.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Lucas Rodenroth 11.5% 12.2% 11.6% 11.2% 11.8% 9.7% 8.8% 8.3% 6.3% 4.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Nicholas Chesemore 9.5% 10.0% 10.4% 10.0% 9.7% 9.6% 10.3% 8.2% 7.8% 5.9% 5.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1%
Nathanael Green 4.5% 5.0% 5.7% 5.7% 7.5% 7.1% 8.1% 9.6% 9.8% 12.0% 11.9% 7.8% 4.5% 0.8%
Nigel Yu 6.6% 5.2% 6.5% 7.5% 8.3% 8.5% 8.9% 9.5% 10.5% 10.7% 8.6% 6.3% 2.5% 0.4%
Rakesh Dhiman 4.7% 5.3% 6.3% 6.5% 6.1% 8.3% 8.1% 9.8% 9.0% 9.9% 11.3% 8.8% 4.9% 1.0%
Brian Zettlemoyer 6.7% 6.6% 7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 8.6% 10.1% 9.8% 9.0% 8.9% 9.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.4%
Payden Pittman 17.5% 16.4% 14.8% 13.2% 10.7% 8.9% 6.9% 5.0% 3.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Xinshi Feng 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.8% 7.3% 8.3% 9.7% 9.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.2% 6.3% 3.9% 0.5%
Bryce Lesinski 6.7% 8.0% 8.9% 8.7% 7.4% 10.2% 10.2% 10.0% 9.3% 8.5% 6.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.1%
Caroline Henry 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 6.0% 5.9% 7.4% 8.8% 11.6% 12.5% 13.3% 8.6% 3.4%
Quinn Schwarz 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.3% 5.1% 5.7% 8.0% 16.0% 24.6% 25.4%
Nathaniel Bacheller 0.8% 1.6% 0.9% 1.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4.7% 6.5% 15.2% 22.8% 33.1%
William O'Haver 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2.9% 3.5% 4.9% 7.2% 14.0% 22.9% 34.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.