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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.94+3.12vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.42+3.23vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.82+1.36vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.13+2.10vs Predicted
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5McGill University1.36+3.15vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.37-0.45vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.42+0.96vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.97-3.94vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.56-4.01vs Predicted
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10Brown University0.23+0.89vs Predicted
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11Brandeis University-0.02+0.40vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-3.86vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut-0.59-0.40vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-0.68-1.39vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.58-1.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.12Roger Williams University2.940.2%1st Place
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5.23Harvard University2.420.1%1st Place
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4.36Tufts University2.820.2%1st Place
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6.1Boston College2.130.1%1st Place
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8.15McGill University1.360.0%1st Place
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5.55Cornell University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.96Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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4.06Boston University2.970.2%1st Place
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4.99University of Rhode Island2.560.1%1st Place
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10.89Brown University0.230.0%1st Place
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11.4Brandeis University-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.450.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Connecticut-0.590.0%1st Place
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12.61Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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13.83University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gemperline | 17.6% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 16.4% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Rizika | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mete Sayin | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Luke Andersen | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Colbeth | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 17.3% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 10.3% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean O'Keefe | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 10.6% | 3.0% |
| Maya Dornbrand-Lo | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 19.3% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 7.2% |
| Joseph Chamberlin | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Corie Fay | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 22.9% | 25.6% | 17.4% |
| Alexie Lessing | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 19.3% | 27.4% | 17.5% |
| Molly Gallagher | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 18.9% | 54.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.