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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.25+4.83vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.13+4.06vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+3.82vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.80+3.43vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.95+2.02vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.260.00vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.23-1.31vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.90-0.95vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.97-2.11vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-0.66vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.68-0.03vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.70-4.23vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.05-3.29vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University2.45-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.06Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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7.43Bowdoin College2.800.1%1st Place
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7.02University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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6.0Tufts University3.260.1%1st Place
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5.69Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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7.05Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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6.89Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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9.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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10.97Dartmouth College1.680.0%1st Place
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7.77University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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9.71Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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8.42Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Lamphere | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Cook | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| August Sturm | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Lyons | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Alexander Tong | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Bryce Kopp | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Peter Lynn | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Dirk Johnson | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Frank Reeg | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 14.6% |
| Nathaniel Greason | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 35.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Victoria McGruer | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| John Silvestri | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.