Race 3A

mystic-lake-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
John Duncan 2.2% 2.4% 4.2% 4.9% 6.5% 9.9% 14.3% 17.5% 16.4% 15.9% 5.8%
Jackson McCoy 25.4% 22.8% 16.4% 14.3% 9.0% 7.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Alexander 15.4% 16.0% 16.4% 15.1% 15.1% 10.2% 7.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Dylan Farrell 10.9% 10.3% 12.0% 14.6% 14.6% 13.9% 10.9% 7.4% 3.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.1% 4.5% 6.9% 8.2% 10.0% 11.4% 13.5% 16.4% 14.4% 7.4% 2.2%
Robby Gearon 19.7% 20.4% 17.0% 13.5% 11.9% 7.7% 5.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Maddy Crowley 1.5% 3.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.6% 5.2% 7.4% 9.6% 14.6% 28.1% 23.8%
Mary Paz 12.0% 13.1% 14.9% 14.5% 13.1% 13.6% 9.4% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Henry Bushnell 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.2% 6.5% 9.5% 17.5% 53.7%
Emma Haley 2.5% 2.3% 3.4% 4.5% 5.2% 7.8% 10.6% 14.2% 20.0% 19.0% 10.5%
Dylan Whitcraft 4.3% 4.3% 5.3% 7.5% 9.6% 10.2% 14.6% 15.6% 16.1% 8.7% 3.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.