Race 4A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Erik Weis 7.8% 7.0% 6.9% 7.9% 8.4% 7.3% 8.2% 9.8% 8.1% 7.8% 8.7% 5.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Connor Godfrey 9.5% 10.1% 10.4% 9.1% 9.4% 10.3% 9.6% 7.6% 8.1% 6.8% 4.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Charles Bocklet 3.8% 3.3% 4.2% 3.9% 4.7% 5.6% 6.2% 8.2% 6.8% 9.9% 10.8% 12.7% 11.0% 7.4% 1.5%
Jeremy Herrin 14.3% 14.8% 11.4% 10.8% 10.5% 8.8% 9.7% 6.6% 5.6% 2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
John Lawless 3.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 5.9% 5.2% 7.7% 7.4% 10.0% 11.4% 13.3% 10.4% 5.8% 1.8%
Peter Hidley 2.5% 3.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3.4% 4.1% 4.9% 6.4% 6.3% 10.9% 10.6% 13.9% 15.3% 8.6% 3.1%
Bradley Adam 16.9% 14.0% 14.2% 12.9% 10.5% 10.0% 7.2% 4.6% 3.7% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Madigan 9.4% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 9.7% 9.0% 8.7% 8.7% 7.7% 5.9% 4.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Eddie Cox 10.5% 10.3% 11.4% 11.3% 9.8% 9.9% 8.5% 9.2% 7.8% 4.9% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Vidar Minkovsky 5.5% 4.0% 6.9% 6.2% 7.4% 7.8% 8.5% 9.4% 10.6% 7.6% 9.7% 8.3% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Maximilian Kuester 7.9% 9.9% 8.6% 10.1% 7.7% 9.1% 10.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.1% 6.4% 3.8% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Connor Kasper 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 3.0% 4.1% 9.5% 17.4% 58.4%
Bailey Carter 5.5% 5.4% 5.8% 6.3% 8.8% 6.6% 6.7% 7.2% 11.1% 12.3% 8.5% 7.8% 4.8% 2.7% 0.5%
Barrie Joanna 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.7% 3.9% 4.7% 5.2% 6.7% 9.5% 16.5% 25.6% 16.3%
Dante Iozzo 0.9% 1.1% 1.9% 1.3% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 3.8% 4.4% 7.0% 10.5% 15.9% 26.6% 16.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.