Race 1B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Lee Dumaliang 10.5% 11.9% 12.5% 10.5% 10.7% 10.9% 10.5% 7.1% 5.8% 4.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Duncan Williford 19.0% 15.4% 15.0% 12.3% 13.1% 10.4% 4.5% 4.2% 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 6.1% 7.9% 8.0% 7.5% 8.0% 10.4% 10.7% 10.7% 9.1% 9.5% 7.2% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Jonathan Lutz 11.9% 14.4% 13.5% 12.7% 12.9% 8.8% 8.5% 6.7% 5.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Roberto Stevens 14.5% 15.9% 14.7% 14.8% 9.4% 10.1% 7.6% 5.7% 3.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Warren 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% 7.5% 10.3% 10.7% 14.1% 12.6% 13.2% 7.2% 1.0%
Peter Steo 6.8% 7.5% 7.5% 8.0% 7.2% 10.8% 9.5% 11.5% 8.2% 10.7% 6.8% 4.2% 1.0% 0.3%
Jimmy Madigan 12.7% 10.7% 11.2% 10.8% 11.3% 9.3% 9.1% 8.2% 7.2% 5.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Nicholas Pardini 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.6% 4.9% 5.3% 6.8% 8.1% 12.7% 11.5% 16.5% 12.8% 7.1% 1.0%
Korbin Kierstead 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 4.2% 4.4% 6.4% 9.3% 7.1% 10.0% 11.0% 14.7% 15.4% 7.6% 1.5%
Juan Lejarraga 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 7.3% 8.8% 8.1% 9.6% 10.7% 12.0% 10.5% 7.8% 5.9% 2.7% 0.2%
Tyler Rochon 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8% 3.9% 6.7% 8.0% 10.3% 14.3% 21.7% 17.3% 3.8%
Brendan Brown-McCue 1.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 2.1% 2.3% 3.4% 4.8% 7.8% 14.7% 42.2% 16.6%
Peter Smith 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 2.6% 3.5% 13.8% 75.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.