Race 3B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Roberto Stevens 16.6% 16.6% 15.1% 13.1% 9.7% 8.8% 7.5% 4.5% 4.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Jonathan Lutz 15.5% 14.3% 13.0% 11.2% 12.1% 12.0% 6.6% 7.0% 4.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Duncan Williford 17.5% 16.0% 14.6% 13.2% 10.9% 8.7% 8.1% 4.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Jimmy Madigan 10.3% 11.1% 12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 10.4% 9.3% 8.2% 6.9% 5.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 5.7% 7.0% 6.8% 9.3% 8.7% 9.7% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5% 9.4% 7.1% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Lee Dumaliang 10.3% 9.4% 10.6% 12.6% 11.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.1% 8.1% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Peter Steo 6.5% 8.1% 7.0% 7.5% 7.7% 10.2% 10.5% 9.1% 11.6% 7.7% 7.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Tyler Rochon 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 7.0% 7.2% 9.6% 13.5% 21.6% 16.9% 4.5%
Korbin Kierstead 3.4% 2.5% 3.9% 3.0% 5.1% 4.9% 6.6% 9.3% 9.9% 14.8% 14.2% 13.9% 7.4% 1.1%
Sarah Warren 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 4.7% 5.3% 5.4% 7.7% 8.5% 10.8% 13.2% 14.6% 12.6% 6.9% 1.2%
Nicholas Pardini 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.8% 5.8% 5.9% 7.8% 7.6% 8.8% 13.3% 15.7% 14.0% 7.4% 0.9%
Brendan Brown-McCue 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% 4.6% 7.4% 16.7% 41.7% 16.5%
Juan Lejarraga 5.6% 5.9% 7.5% 5.8% 7.3% 8.9% 10.4% 11.5% 11.3% 9.2% 9.4% 4.2% 2.8% 0.2%
Peter Smith 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 2.0% 5.1% 13.4% 75.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.