Race 4B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Roberto Stevens 16.6% 15.7% 15.7% 13.4% 10.6% 8.4% 6.0% 5.8% 3.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Jimmy Madigan 12.6% 11.3% 11.1% 11.3% 12.0% 11.5% 9.3% 7.1% 6.7% 3.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Duncan Williford 17.6% 16.6% 13.8% 12.4% 10.7% 9.8% 7.2% 5.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Steo 4.5% 6.6% 8.0% 7.8% 9.0% 8.9% 10.4% 10.2% 9.7% 10.1% 8.1% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Luca Taglialegne 5.3% 8.0% 7.5% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 10.9% 10.3% 9.2% 10.4% 6.7% 4.9% 0.7% 0.3%
Lee Dumaliang 10.1% 9.9% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 10.5% 9.4% 8.6% 6.6% 6.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Lutz 14.6% 15.9% 12.4% 13.0% 11.0% 9.8% 8.2% 7.1% 3.4% 2.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Korbin Kierstead 3.9% 3.1% 3.8% 5.6% 3.9% 5.1% 7.4% 7.5% 10.4% 11.3% 14.2% 13.0% 9.5% 1.3%
Juan Lejarraga 5.9% 3.7% 7.1% 5.8% 8.3% 8.6% 10.4% 10.8% 12.1% 10.9% 8.4% 5.0% 2.6% 0.4%
Sarah Warren 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 4.1% 5.3% 6.8% 6.6% 9.1% 11.1% 11.8% 14.5% 13.8% 6.6% 1.2%
Tyler Rochon 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.6% 4.8% 6.1% 8.3% 8.8% 15.0% 22.1% 18.2% 3.6%
Nicholas Pardini 2.5% 3.1% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 6.4% 7.8% 8.2% 11.3% 13.0% 13.4% 12.3% 8.2% 1.2%
Brendan Brown-McCue 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 2.8% 6.0% 8.0% 15.8% 40.1% 16.6%
Peter Smith 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 2.8% 5.2% 12.3% 75.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.