Race 5B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Roberto Stevens 17.1% 16.9% 15.0% 10.6% 11.8% 9.2% 7.1% 4.7% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Jonathan Lutz 14.6% 14.1% 14.2% 13.2% 10.6% 10.4% 8.5% 5.7% 4.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 6.5% 6.9% 9.0% 8.3% 8.2% 8.5% 10.8% 11.1% 9.3% 8.8% 8.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.1%
Korbin Kierstead 2.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.7% 5.1% 4.3% 6.8% 9.3% 8.7% 14.1% 13.5% 14.4% 8.4% 1.2%
Sarah Warren 2.9% 2.7% 4.2% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 8.3% 8.4% 10.0% 12.8% 13.8% 12.9% 6.8% 1.6%
Lee Dumaliang 10.2% 9.2% 10.8% 12.7% 11.4% 10.5% 8.3% 8.7% 8.2% 5.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Tyler Rochon 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.9% 4.3% 3.8% 5.4% 6.1% 6.7% 9.2% 14.5% 21.2% 16.5% 3.2%
Jimmy Madigan 12.0% 13.4% 9.1% 10.9% 10.8% 10.4% 8.3% 8.8% 6.9% 5.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Peter Steo 6.6% 4.5% 7.6% 6.8% 7.1% 10.2% 10.4% 10.9% 11.1% 9.4% 8.4% 4.8% 2.0% 0.2%
Nicholas Pardini 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 4.0% 4.9% 7.3% 6.3% 8.1% 11.6% 12.4% 13.3% 14.4% 7.7% 1.2%
Juan Lejarraga 5.2% 5.6% 5.7% 7.3% 8.4% 8.1% 9.7% 9.5% 12.7% 9.8% 9.6% 5.4% 2.6% 0.4%
Duncan Williford 16.5% 17.0% 14.6% 12.3% 11.0% 10.1% 7.9% 4.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Brendan Brown-McCue 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 4.7% 7.2% 16.1% 40.7% 16.6%
Peter Smith 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% 4.3% 13.0% 75.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.