Race 6B

david-lee-arnoff

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Luca Taglialegne 6.7% 7.1% 7.7% 9.5% 9.8% 9.0% 10.5% 10.3% 9.3% 8.5% 6.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.1%
Jonathan Lutz 14.5% 14.3% 13.6% 13.0% 11.5% 10.0% 7.4% 6.4% 4.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Lee Dumaliang 11.0% 11.8% 10.6% 10.2% 11.2% 11.0% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Peter Steo 5.4% 5.8% 7.4% 7.1% 9.0% 9.3% 9.8% 11.6% 10.8% 9.1% 8.4% 4.2% 2.0% 0.1%
Juan Lejarraga 3.9% 5.6% 7.4% 6.6% 8.5% 7.7% 9.9% 10.8% 10.9% 10.6% 8.6% 7.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Duncan Williford 17.3% 14.2% 15.0% 13.6% 9.5% 9.7% 7.8% 5.6% 3.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Pardini 3.5% 3.3% 4.6% 5.4% 5.9% 5.1% 7.6% 8.6% 10.0% 10.9% 14.2% 14.7% 5.1% 1.1%
Jimmy Madigan 12.3% 11.7% 9.8% 11.6% 10.5% 10.2% 9.0% 8.9% 7.3% 4.6% 2.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Tyler Rochon 2.2% 1.9% 2.3% 1.7% 3.0% 2.4% 5.2% 4.9% 7.2% 10.2% 16.2% 20.9% 17.8% 4.1%
Korbin Kierstead 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.8% 4.3% 6.7% 6.7% 7.2% 10.8% 14.0% 13.4% 15.2% 7.8% 1.3%
Sarah Warren 3.3% 3.1% 3.3% 4.5% 4.8% 7.5% 6.9% 7.4% 10.7% 13.2% 14.7% 12.7% 6.9% 1.0%
Roberto Stevens 15.6% 17.4% 14.4% 11.7% 10.4% 10.0% 8.4% 5.8% 2.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Brendan Brown-McCue 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7% 3.1% 3.3% 4.9% 7.9% 14.3% 42.3% 16.4%
Peter Smith 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2% 3.3% 14.1% 75.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.