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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.59vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+5.92vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.68+3.80vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.73+1.32vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+2.09vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+3.81vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.26+5.15vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.87vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.20+2.76vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.38-2.86vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.38-2.37vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.78-4.08vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.58-5.23vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-3.97vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.06-3.19vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.41-1.55vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire0.10-2.14vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59Harvard University3.1816.4%1st Place
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7.92Tufts University2.226.4%1st Place
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6.8Roger Williams University2.688.5%1st Place
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5.32Yale University2.7313.1%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.2%1st Place
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9.81Brown University2.223.6%1st Place
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12.15Northeastern University1.262.1%1st Place
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8.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.0%1st Place
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11.76Connecticut College1.202.4%1st Place
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7.14Dartmouth College2.388.2%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.385.2%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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7.77Boston College2.585.3%1st Place
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10.03Boston University1.394.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Vermont1.062.1%1st Place
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14.45Maine Maritime Academy0.411.0%1st Place
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14.86University of New Hampshire0.100.6%1st Place
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14.09Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.4% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 6.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| William Michels | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Peter Busch | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Henri Richardsson | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 18.5% | 26.5% |
| Sam Harris | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 19.8% | 29.6% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.