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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.32vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.74+5.30vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.04+3.32vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.92+2.78vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61+3.08vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.91+0.84vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.38+1.71vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.33+0.96vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.73-1.58vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.24-0.65vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.36+1.06vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.02-5.27vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.05-6.36vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.14-4.39vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.34-6.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.3Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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6.32University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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6.78Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.84Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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8.71George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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7.42College of Charleston2.730.1%1st Place
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9.35University of South Florida2.240.0%1st Place
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12.06Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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6.73Brown University3.020.1%1st Place
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6.64Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.61Old Dominion University2.140.0%1st Place
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8.87Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Laura Wefer | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Maeve White | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| India Johnstone | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 6.3% |
| Hannah Hughes | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Alison Knoles | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Samara Leith | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 40.7% |
| Sophie Hibben | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Casey Klingler | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 10.3% |
| Elise Gehling | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.