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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+4.33vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+4.69vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.13vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+3.80vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.85vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+3.95vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.38+1.59vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.18-3.42vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.58-1.30vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.20+1.82vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-3.72vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.38-5.07vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.06-1.12vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-4.22vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-2.70vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-1.76vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire0.10-2.42vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy0.41-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33Yale University2.7312.7%1st Place
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6.69Roger Williams University2.688.3%1st Place
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8.13University of Rhode Island2.786.0%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University2.226.4%1st Place
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8.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.4%1st Place
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9.95Brown University2.223.6%1st Place
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8.59Bowdoin College2.385.5%1st Place
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4.58Harvard University3.1816.4%1st Place
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7.7Boston College2.587.1%1st Place
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11.82Connecticut College1.202.4%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.0%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College2.388.1%1st Place
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11.88University of Vermont1.062.1%1st Place
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9.78Boston University1.394.2%1st Place
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12.3Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
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14.24Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.330.9%1st Place
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14.58University of New Hampshire0.101.1%1st Place
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14.55Maine Maritime Academy0.411.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Mason Stang | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.4% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| Sam Harris | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 28.6% |
| Henri Richardsson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 18.7% | 26.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.