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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+10.44vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.52+6.11vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.49+5.43vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+8.10vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.76vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.89+0.62vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.19+2.94vs Predicted
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8Stanford University4.05+2.02vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+1.83vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.76+1.56vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.63+1.21vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University4.78-4.82vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-5.06vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College4.06-3.86vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy4.34-6.11vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-3.17vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.70-5.28vs Predicted
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18Salve Regina University3.92-7.02vs Predicted
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19University of Connecticut2.51-2.60vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin2.72-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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8.11Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.43Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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12.1College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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6.76St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.62Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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9.94Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
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10.02Stanford University4.050.0%1st Place
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10.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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11.56Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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12.21Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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7.18Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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10.14Dartmouth College4.060.0%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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12.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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11.72Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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10.98Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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16.4University of Connecticut2.510.0%1st Place
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15.89University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Padnos | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 8.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mac Mace | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 8.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Kevin Laube | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Sommer | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Stephanie Roble | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Daniel Perkins | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Ingham | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Williams | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Robert Vann | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| Sean Andrew | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 36.6% |
| Brendan Boylan | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.