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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Barbara City College2.29+3.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.31+5.82vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-0.08vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.84+1.80vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.62+1.58vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University1.14+2.29vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.53-0.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.88vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62+1.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.02-1.16vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.44-3.70vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+1.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.54+0.85vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.74+0.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-1.26vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30-2.67vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.14-5.00vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.11-5.54vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay0.14-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.71Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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7.82University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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2.92University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.3%1st Place
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5.8University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.1%1st Place
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6.58University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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8.29Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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10.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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13.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.85University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Berkeley-0.740.0%1st Place
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13.74University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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13.33University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
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12.0California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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12.46University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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12.0California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Barton | 13.3% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 28.2% | 24.4% | 16.2% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belle Lemoine | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 19.2% | 0.0% |
| Rohan Sinha | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 25.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.