← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Arizona State University1.14+7.46vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley1.31+5.82vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-0.09vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Berkeley1.62+2.49vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley1.53+1.87vs Predicted
-
6Santa Barbara City College2.29-1.38vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62+3.12vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California1.44-0.92vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-0.08vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara1.84-3.91vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley1.02-2.24vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30+1.56vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-0.54+0.84vs Predicted
-
14California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.43vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19-2.08vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Berkeley-0.74-1.34vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-3.21vs Predicted
-
18California State University Monterey Bay0.14-6.43vs Predicted
-
19University of California at San Diego-0.11-6.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.46Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
-
7.82University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
-
2.91University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.3%1st Place
-
6.49University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
-
6.87University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
-
4.62Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
-
10.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
-
7.08University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
-
8.92University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
-
6.09University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.1%1st Place
-
8.76University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
-
13.56University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
-
13.84University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
-
11.57California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
-
12.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
-
14.66University of California at Berkeley-0.740.0%1st Place
-
13.79University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
-
11.57California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
-
12.5University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Smith | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 27.0% | 25.8% | 15.6% | 12.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 12.4% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Belle Lemoine | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Rohan Sinha | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 16.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.