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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.29+4.81vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.86+6.70vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.42+5.62vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+6.13vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+1.06vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.40-0.11vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.02-0.54vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-2.13vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.48-3.66vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+1.99vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-3.42vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07-1.42vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.00-2.20vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.27-4.53vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.05-4.65vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-2.06vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Yale University2.2911.0%1st Place
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8.7Brown University1.865.0%1st Place
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8.62University of Rhode Island1.425.6%1st Place
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10.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
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6.06Bowdoin College2.0610.3%1st Place
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5.89Roger Williams University2.4010.9%1st Place
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6.46Boston College2.028.2%1st Place
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5.87Dartmouth College2.3910.4%1st Place
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5.34Harvard University2.4814.0%1st Place
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11.99Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
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7.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.586.8%1st Place
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10.58Northeastern University1.072.6%1st Place
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10.8Connecticut College1.002.6%1st Place
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9.47Tufts University1.273.6%1st Place
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10.35University of Vermont1.052.7%1st Place
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13.94Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.031.1%1st Place
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15.41Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 6.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% |
| William Hurd | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 2.7% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 26.2% | 24.2% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.