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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.67vs Predicted
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2California State University Monterey Bay0.14+9.48vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.64+6.69vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.62+2.23vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.44+1.88vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.31+1.14vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62+2.72vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.14+3.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.84-3.27vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.02-1.92vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+1.62vs Predicted
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12Santa Barbara City College2.29-7.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+0.91vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30-1.13vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.69-0.48vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.02-0.77vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.74-2.48vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.54-4.14vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.92-10.49vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-0.11-7.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.67University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.3%1st Place
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11.48California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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6.23University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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9.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.0%1st Place
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11.48California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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5.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.840.1%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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12.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
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4.33Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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13.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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12.87University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
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14.52Arizona State University-0.690.0%1st Place
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15.23University of California at Los Angeles-1.020.0%1st Place
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14.52University of California at Berkeley-0.740.0%1st Place
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13.86University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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12.02University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 33.2% | 23.7% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Weitz | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Belle Lemoine | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 13.8% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Henry | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Daniele | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 27.5% | 0.0% |
| Rohan Sinha | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.