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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.14+1.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.48+3.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.89+1.24vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.69+0.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.57-0.06vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+3.54vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.43-1.64vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+3.77vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.28+0.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.69vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68+0.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.69-0.81vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.28-3.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-2.49vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.30-2.23vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.29-3.12vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.43-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.1University of California at Santa Barbara3.140.4%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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4.24University of California at Berkeley1.890.1%1st Place
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4.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.690.1%1st Place
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4.94University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
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11.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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9.95California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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8.31University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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11.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Santa Barbara-0.690.0%1st Place
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9.95California State University Monterey Bay-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.51University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.77Arizona State University-1.300.0%1st Place
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12.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.290.0%1st Place
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10.48University of California at Berkeley-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dana | 42.4% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hansen | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henrik Bey | 12.7% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finestone | 8.6% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 8.5% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Johnson | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Morris | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Chasen Williams | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Brenyn Bierbaum | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 18.3% | 25.4% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Emil Sebastian Aspelin | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.