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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.77vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+2.24vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.18+1.11vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47-1.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.31+0.39vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.11+1.62vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-0.08vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.62-1.03vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-3.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.77University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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4.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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4.11University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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2.32University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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5.39University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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7.62Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.92California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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6.97University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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5.65University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 51.2% | 29.3% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 5.4% | 9.8% | 18.7% | 25.2% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 7.1% | 12.8% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 19.0% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| John Coakley | 27.6% | 34.5% | 23.1% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 3.0% | 4.9% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 17.0% | 18.5% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Conor McGee | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 23.1% | 43.9% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 25.4% | 21.4% |
| Grant Lin | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 20.1% | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 19.4% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.