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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.35vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.18+2.26vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+1.11vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-2.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.31+0.38vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.62-0.01vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.11-0.36vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-3.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.35University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.26University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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4.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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1.73University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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5.38University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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6.88California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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6.99University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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7.64Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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5.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.9% | 34.0% | 21.0% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 5.2% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 24.0% | 18.1% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Grace Carrick | 7.2% | 11.8% | 19.0% | 20.7% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Neil Stapleton | 52.1% | 29.9% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.2% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 4.7% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 26.5% | 19.9% |
| Grant Lin | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 18.9% | 26.2% | 22.9% |
| Conor McGee | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 45.8% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 2.5% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 18.9% | 17.5% | 19.5% | 13.0% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.