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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.39vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.18+2.23vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-1.21vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.31+1.38vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-0.95vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-0.34vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-0.07vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.11-0.36vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.62-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.39University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.23University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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1.79University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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5.38University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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4.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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5.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.0%1st Place
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6.93California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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7.64Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.95University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.2% | 33.4% | 21.0% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 5.7% | 9.5% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Neil Stapleton | 49.0% | 31.1% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 3.6% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 17.9% | 19.8% | 17.1% | 9.2% | 4.2% |
| Grace Carrick | 8.1% | 12.7% | 20.1% | 21.0% | 16.8% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 2.6% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 5.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 19.3% | 26.3% | 20.9% |
| Conor McGee | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 14.1% | 20.3% | 45.4% |
| Grant Lin | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 19.1% | 24.9% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.