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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.47+1.38vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.18+2.27vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-1.21vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.31+1.40vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-0.95vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+0.86vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.62-0.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-2.36vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.11-1.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.38University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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4.27University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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1.79University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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5.4University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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4.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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6.86California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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6.98University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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5.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.0%1st Place
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7.62Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Coakley | 27.1% | 33.3% | 22.0% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 5.6% | 9.4% | 18.4% | 23.8% | 19.0% | 14.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Neil Stapleton | 49.2% | 30.1% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 3.5% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 16.9% | 9.5% | 4.2% |
| Grace Carrick | 8.2% | 13.1% | 18.5% | 21.5% | 16.7% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 20.2% | 24.1% | 21.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 20.0% | 25.5% | 22.8% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 2.9% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 5.5% |
| Conor McGee | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 21.6% | 44.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.