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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+4.68vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.07+9.64vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.40+2.63vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.29+1.72vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+1.03vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.48-0.51vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+3.02vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-0.56vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.08+1.32vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.56+1.38vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.42-2.45vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.86-3.26vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-2.53vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.00-3.22vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.02-8.81vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-0.76vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.68Dartmouth College2.3912.1%1st Place
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11.64Boston University1.072.2%1st Place
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5.63Roger Williams University2.4011.5%1st Place
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5.72Yale University2.2910.4%1st Place
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6.03Bowdoin College2.0610.0%1st Place
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5.49Harvard University2.4812.7%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.2%1st Place
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7.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.587.1%1st Place
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10.32Tufts University1.082.9%1st Place
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11.38University of Vermont0.561.9%1st Place
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8.55University of Rhode Island1.425.1%1st Place
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8.74Brown University1.865.1%1st Place
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10.47Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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10.78Connecticut College1.002.5%1st Place
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6.19Boston College2.029.3%1st Place
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15.24Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.7%1st Place
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13.68Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.031.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 12.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Keeves | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% |
| William Hurd | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Jack Redmond | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 55.4% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 24.8% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.