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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.79vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.64+10.12vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.82vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+7.48vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.19+4.54vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.89+0.63vs Predicted
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7Harvard University4.52+1.39vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University4.78-1.21vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University3.92+1.72vs Predicted
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10Brown University4.49-1.72vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.70+0.92vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut2.51+4.58vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+0.22vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-3.13vs Predicted
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15Stanford University4.05-4.77vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy4.34-7.15vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.72-1.32vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College4.06-7.71vs Predicted
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19Boston University3.63-6.91vs Predicted
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20Old Dominion University3.76-8.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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12.12College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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7.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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11.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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9.54Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
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6.63Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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8.39Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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6.79Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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10.72Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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8.28Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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11.92Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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16.58University of Connecticut2.510.0%1st Place
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13.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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10.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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10.23Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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15.68University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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10.29Dartmouth College4.060.0%1st Place
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12.09Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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11.72Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Mac Mace | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Sam Padnos | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alan Palmer | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Cy Thompson | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Fred Strammer | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Sean Andrew | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 39.7% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% |
| Andrew Sommer | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Kevin Laube | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Robert Vann | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Boylan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 23.7% |
| Sam Williams | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Daniel Perkins | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.7% |
| Stephanie Roble | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.