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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+7.10vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.73+5.00vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.24vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.24+4.79vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+2.49vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.68+5.17vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida2.92+3.19vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.77-1.31vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.90+1.28vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.42+2.36vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.38-2.57vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.42-3.52vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.01-3.30vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-5.57vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-3.60vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.21-6.93vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.37-4.51vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.19-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.1Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.0Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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5.24Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.79Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.49Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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11.17Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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10.19University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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6.69Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.28University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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12.36Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.43Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.48Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.7Stanford University3.010.0%1st Place
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8.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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11.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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9.07Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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12.49Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
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15.7SUNY Maritime College1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.1% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Crary | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 10.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Russell Clarida | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| David Larson | 6.1% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Kayla Ellis | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 5.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Luke Andersen | 2.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 11.2% |
| Andrew Hall | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 15.5% | 51.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.